Control of the Senate is on the line Tuesday following a midterm election cycle with races marked by betrayal, alleged ballot shenanigans and President Donald Trump’s incessant swooning over the backside of one Republican candidate.
Close races are expected in the traditional battlegrounds of Michigan and North Carolina — but also in states that have become more reliably red since Trump’s rise in politics, such as Ohio and Iowa.
NBC News projects that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has won re-election in swing state Georgia, defeating Republican Rep. Mike Collins.
There are also closer-than-expected races brewing in even redder states such as Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina and Texas.
And with nearly three-fourths of the expected vote counted in Florida, another more reliably conservative state, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is locked in a close race with state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist.
Underscoring the high stakes: In the most expensive election cycle ever, more than $3.4 billion has been spent on television and digital advertisements in Senate races across the country, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to regain control.
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A Democratic takeover would require them to flip at least two states that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
The most likely targets are Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and South Carolina. More than 50% of voters in each of those states disapprove of how Trump is handling his job, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll.
In Kansas, for example, where Trump won by 16 percentage points two years ago, 57% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, according to the survey.
The consequences for Trump are significant. For the past two years, his own Republican Party has controlled both chambers of Congress, allowing him to pursue his agenda largely unchecked. But if the Republicans lose the Senate, he’ll need Democratic cooperation to move forward on legislation and appointments. Democrats will have increased power to pursue investigations into the administration.
The NBC News Exit Poll found midterm voters with decisively negative opinions on how Congress is handling its role as a check and balance on Trump — 71% of voters, including 41% of Republicans, said there is not enough congressional oversight of the presidency.
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Alaska has emerged late as a closely watched contest. Democrat Mary Peltola is under scrutiny after a New York Times report that her campaign and other Democrats recruited a candidate into the race — Dan J. Sullivan — with the same name as Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The “ballot-stacking” tactic is seen as a way to sow confusion among voters in a state that uses ranked choice voting and has four Senate candidates on the ballot.
Peltola and her campaign have repeatedly denied allegations that they recruited the lesser-known Sullivan.
Polls close in Alaska at 1 a.m. ET.
Clarity about the fight for the Senate will come much earlier in states such as Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, and Michigan, where the last polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a tough challenge from Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown in the race to serve the remaining two years on JD Vance’s unexpired Senate term. Husted was appointed to fill the seat temporarily last year after Vance was elected vice president.
Polls have shown a close race in Ohio, and the president held three rallies in the state in recent weeks — as well as one in the Cincinnati media market, in neighboring Kentucky — in an effort to boost Husted. Trump used the rallies not only to promote Husted’s work as a senator, but also to compliment his physique. Trump, who often gives the impression that he is casting for a movie, repeatedly praised Husted’s “ass” in Ohio and elsewhere down the stretch.
“If Husted wins,” one senior Republican official told NBC News last week, “it’s because Trump literally dragged his ass over the finish line.”
Then there’s the Michigan race, which is ending on an explosive note. The Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers, scored a surprise last-minute endorsement Sunday from Rep. Haley Stevens, who in August lost the Democratic nomination to challenge him.
Stevens had vowed as late as Saturday, publicly and privately, to not break her promise to vote for Abdul El-Sayed. The Democrats had long clashed over his criticism of Israel, but Stevens’ criticism had intensified in recent days, prompting the El-Sayed campaign to signal that she was no longer welcome at his events. Stevens cited that in her decision to defect to Rogers, sparking outrage and accusations of betrayal from House Democratic colleagues.
Other key races to watch Tuesday include Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m., and where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is up against Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson.
And at 9 p.m. ET, the last polls will close in Texas, which hasn’t had a Democratic senator in 33 years. The race took on a heightened energy after the Republican incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, lost a primary runoff to state Attorney General Ken Paxton after a heavy push by Trump in favor of the latter.
Democrats are excited about their candidate, state Rep. James Talarico, who has maintained steady leads in polls, though within the margin of error. Trump ally and tech billionaire Elon Musk, meanwhile, has spent at least $150 million to back Paxton.