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Hurricane Polo downgraded but remains 'very powerful' off coast of Mexico

Hurricane Polo downgraded but remains 'very powerful' off coast of Mexico

Figure caption,

Did El Niño turn Hurricane Polo into the most powerful storm of the season?

Hurricane Polo, a large storm off the coast of Mexico, has been downgraded to category 4 but remains "very powerful", the US National Hurricane Center said.

The Pacific hurricane, one of the strongest of the season, was projected to head towards the coast of south-western Mexico, bringing intense wind and rain, though was not expected to make landfall.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft, operated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), flew into the storm on Tuesday and recorded sustained wind speeds near 180 mph (285 km/h), with stronger gusts.

The slow-moving storm is being fuelled by extremely warm waters caused by the El Niño climate phenomenon.

It was previously a category 5 storm - the highest level on the scale - but was downgraded to category 4 on Wednesday morning.

Forecasters said that the storm was expected to fluctuate in intensity over the next few days.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Polo intensifying near the coast of southwestern Mexico, September 21, 2026, in this still image taken from video. Image source, CSU/CIRA & NOAA/Handout via REUTERS

A satellite image shows Hurricane Polo intensifying near the coast of southwestern Mexico, September 21, 2026, in this still image taken from video.

As it slowly drifts north west, Polo will drive torrential rainfall in parts of Mexico's south-west coast, and "may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," the forecaster said.

Forecasters said heavy rainfall associated with Polo could impact coastal regions in southwest Mexico through Thursday.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for portions of southwest Mexico and a tropical storm watch is in effect west of Playa Perula, the National Hurricane Center said.

The hurricane centre said people under a tropical storm warning should expect conditions to develop on Wednesday, and those in the watch areas can expect conditions to develop by Thursday.

Forecast map showing Hurricane Polo’s projected track west of Mexico’s Pacific coast from Wednesday to Monday. A dashed line and red markers indicate the forecast path, with shaded cones showing uncertainty and colours marking Category 2, 3 and 4 intensity. The track runs offshore parallel to the states of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco before turning north west away from Mexico. An inset locates the region within North America. Source: National Hurricane Center, 23 September; times shown in CST.

Forecast map showing Hurricane Polo’s projected track west of Mexico’s Pacific coast from Wednesday to Monday. A dashed line and red markers indicate the forecast path, with shaded cones showing uncertainty and colours marking Category 2, 3 and 4 intensity. The track runs offshore parallel to the states of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco before turning north west away from Mexico. An inset locates the region within North America. Source: National Hurricane Center, 23 September; times shown in CST.

Rainfall totals of up to 6in (15cm) are forecast, with 8in possible in some areas. Residents have also been warned of large ocean swells and life-threatening surf conditions for the next few days.

"So far, the information we have is that (Polo) will not make a direct landfall on the coast," Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday, but she warned residents along the Pacific coast to be vigilant. Sheinbaum highlighted the states of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan as being at risk.

So far this season, the Pacific has seen 15 storms, all in early September. Polo is the strongest of a batch of three storms currently swirling between Hawaii and the North American mainland.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that Polo could still strengthen, because of what NOAA called a "very conducive" environment of extremely warm ocean waters feeding the storm.

Members of the National Guard, one of them driving an ATV, patrol a beach as part of the Army, Air Force and National Guard's DN-III disaster relief plan as Category 5 Hurricane Polo strengthens off Mexico's Pacific coast, bringing heavy rain and flooding risks despite a forecast track away from shore, in Acapulco, Mexico, September 22, 2026.Image source, Reuters

Image caption,

Members of the National Guard patrol a beach as Mexico prepares for Hurricane Polo

Scientists monitoring the ocean temperatures say the current El Niño climate phenomenon is now the strongest on record.

Daily sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific were 3.05C above average on 19 September - exceeding the previous record of 3.02C set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.

Some longer-term measures of El Niño have not yet hit record levels but this is likely to change, with the peak not expected until later this year.

Warmer ocean waters mean storms can pick up more energy, leading to higher wind speeds.

El Niño is a naturally-occurring pattern, which happens about every two to seven years and tends to last for around a year.

Trade winds that typically blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean can weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastwards.

Heat is then released from the ocean into the atmosphere which can boost global temperatures and drive changes in weather patterns around the world.

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