For four years, India, one of the world's biggest oil importers, has turned Russia's war-driven disruption of global oil markets to its advantage.

Russian crude, displaced from western markets after the invasion of Ukraine, has flowed instead to Indian refineries, often at attractive discounts. The arrangement has lowered the cost of one of India's biggest imports and given its refiners an abundant source of crude.

Now that bargain is becoming a source of geopolitical risk.

The US House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation giving President Donald Trump broad powers to impose sanctions on Russia and tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. It will now go to Trump to be signed into law.

India and China are among those most exposed because both are major buyers of Russian oil. China accounted for half of Russia's crude exports, followed by India at 37%, Turkey at 5% and the EU at 5% between December 2022 and August 2026, according to the think-tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, worth $40.8bn out of a total crude import bill of $134.7bn, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank. In July, Russian crude accounted for more than half of India's imports.

Other suppliers lagged far behind: the UAE accounted for 10.8% of India's July imports, Saudi Arabia 9.6%, Venezuela 6.3%, Brazil 5.5%, Oman 5.3% and the US 2.9%. Russia alone supplied more crude than all six combined.

"The bill is a blunt and dangerous attempt to pressurise India to sign the bilateral trade agreement on one-sided terms. India buys Russian oil to secure affordable energy for 1.4 billion people, not to finance war, and these purchases have helped stabilise global supplies and prices," says Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official who runs GTRI.

To be true, the economics of Russian oil have shifted. The crude no longer carries the steep discounts that made it particularly attractive to Indian refiners in the early years of the war, while competition for Russian barrels has intensified and shipping, insurance and sanctions risks have risen.

"China and India, you better buy your oil and gas somewhere else," Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal told reporters , externalafter the passage of the bill.

These countries would normally have 180 days to cut Russian energy imports or negotiate with Washington, but the president can shorten the deadline.

India said in a statement that it was "monitoring further developments on this matter" and that it remained "firmly committed to ensuring energy security" for its people.

"This issue has been discussed at high levels in recent months with various US interlocutors. Its potential implications for not just the bilateral relationship but also the international energy market have been very clearly articulated by the Indian side," it added.

India can find alternatives to Russian crude, but replacing it at scale would come at a price. S&P Global says alternative supplies, external can mean higher crude, freight and insurance costs, while longer shipping routes add to the burden.

"The issue is not simply whether Russian barrels can be redirected to other buyers, but whether enough alternative crude is available to replace them without tightening the global market further," says Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

But the tariff would hit India elsewhere, too.

The US is threatening tariffs on Indian exports to America, not a tax on Russian crude entering India. The impact would be felt through Indian exporters, the rupee, refinery margins and the trade balance.

"This new bill could have major problematic impacts for India, and at the worst possible time, amid sensitive final-stage trade talks and shaky broader relations," Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC.

"India has built some insulation to fend off the shocks of US tariffs through new trade deals with key markets in the EU and elsewhere, and through bolstering an already strong trade partnership with China. But [up to]100% tariffs from a critical export destination is real bad news, no matter how you slice it and even with successful hedging tactics."

The scale of that exposure is considerable. The US imported about $104bn of goods from India in 2025, while two-way US-India trade in goods and services was roughly $240bn, according to the US Trade Representative.

India's exports to the US include electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, jewellery, chemicals, textiles and petroleum products. In 2025, electrical and electronic equipment alone accounted for about $25.8bn of Indian exports to America, pharmaceuticals about $9.7bn and machinery about $7.2bn.

The new threat comes after an earlier round of Trump tariffs on Indian goods, which peaked at 50% in 2025 before being reduced.

That creates an uncomfortable calculation for Delhi: how much should India pay for Russian crude before the savings are outweighed by the risk to its exports to the US?

There is no simple answer. It will depend on the Russian discount, global crude prices, freight and insurance costs, the tariff Trump ultimately imposes, and whether Washington offers exemptions or reaches a broader settlement with Delhi.

The picture gets more complicated once the crude is refined. India is not merely a buyer: its refineries turn Russian crude into fuels that can then be exported.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have forced the world's once-largest oil-products exporter to import fuel. In August, imports hit a record 172,000 tonnes, more than seven times the previous monthly high, according to CREA. India supplied about 120,000 tonnes, or roughly 70%, mostly petrol refined from Russian crude at a refinery in Gujarat, worth around €78m.

China buys more Russian crude than India, but Kugelman says Beijing has greater leverage because of its role in global supply chains and the scale of its economic relationship with the US.

"China has massive leverage over the global economy, particularly through its dominance of critical supply chains. India, despite being one of the world's biggest economies, does not have the same leverage. The Trump administration appears to believe that its economic interests are more exposed if China retaliates than if India does," says Kugelman.

For India, the issue is not simply how much Russian oil it buys, but how resilient its alternatives are.

The threat is serious because India imports more than 88% of its crude oil.

More than 85% of India's crude comes from just six countries, several in conflict-prone regions, while its refineries are not always equipped to switch easily between crude grades, according to the think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

The vulnerability extends beyond oil. India imports more than 60% of its LPG, the main cooking fuel for more than 330 million households. Its strategic petroleum reserves hold only 9-10 days of net oil imports, compared with roughly 200 days in Japan and 207 in South Korea. Operational stocks at refineries provide another 64 days.

All this makes Russian crude more than a bargain: CEEW estimates that India has saved about $12.6bn from its post-2022 shift to Russian crude.

The looming US tariff could now turn that insurance into a liability - leaving Delhi to calculate whether the savings from Russian oil are worth the price of keeping it.

GTRI's Srivastava reckons "Washington could threaten tariffs of up to 100%, then offer a lower rate if Delhi cuts Russian oil purchases and accepts concessions in a deeply unequal trade deal".

"India should not allow US tariff threats to determine its energy policy," he says. "It should continue buying Russian oil as long as it remains commercially competitive and negotiate firmly with Washington without granting unilateral trade concessions."